Bank Problems = Bearish Thumb on Stock Market Scale
If you were not bearish already, then perhaps time to reconsider your stock market (SPY) outlook. As you will discover in today’s commentary, even the best case scenario for the recent banking concerns still likely tips the economy into recession which leads to deepening bear market. Read on below for the full story including a game plan to trade your way to profits on the way down.
There were plenty of reasons to already be bearish. Most of them were highlighted in my latest presentation, REVISED: 2023 Stock Market Outlook.
But now you layer on top deepening concerns about a potential banking crisis and it’s becoming a slam dunk for the bears. This explains why we are back below the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 (SPY) once again poised to head even lower.
What happens next?
What is the right trading plan?
What are the best trades to make now?
That is what we will focus on in today’s conversation.
I have already been on record as saying that this is clearly not the 2008 financial crisis revisited. Not even close.
Unfortunately enough damage has already been that even if another banking failure does not emerge that it already puts a thumb on the scale towards recession. Don’t just take my word for it…let’s get some insights from one of the economists over at JP Morgan who recently said:
“A very rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two. We believe this is broadly consistent with our view that tighter monetary policy will push the US into recession later this year.”
Goldman Sachs had similar sentiments in a note this week:
“We have seen a tightening of lending standards in the banking system, and my suspicion is that they will tighten further from here and potentially could tighten quite sharply, at least in the near term. On balance, my guess is that banks will take a view that this could result in either a near-term recession or a deeper recession than you would have had without this event.”
This is probably the best case scenario.
Now imagine the worst case. That being greater scrutiny by investors and bank regulators which uncovers another handful or more of large banks that need to be taken over or recapitalized. The headline risk on each round of breaking news would be bad devastating for the stock market.
Beyond that is the increase in fear by the average consumer and business owner that leads to greater caution…which is a fancy way of saying they will spend less. That is the road to recession. And that road was already getting paved by the Fed with a hawkish regime dead set on lowering demand to tame inflation this year.
I can not say for sure where on this spectrum of banking outcomes we will land. Unfortunately, even the best case for banks still points to likely recession and extension of bear market.
This explains why the last 9 sessions have been below 4,000. And 6 of the last 7 sessions below the 200 day moving average (red line below).
Some investors will want to wait for the next Fed announcement on 3/22 before making their next move…but why???
Remove the banking issues from the equation. They were incredibly clear that inflation is still too high and that they will keep pushing rates to 5%+ and have that in place through at least the end of the year.
That extended period of hawkishness, plus the lagged effects of Fed policy, is a pretty sure elixir for creating a recession. This explains why stocks were selling off into this announcement BEFORE the banking issues ever emerged.
Now let’s consider the borderline insane notion that the Fed could pause their rate hikes in March to lessen the pain over recent banking issues. Here is what I said about that in my Tuesday commentary:
“I actually suspect that investors would take that as a negative. That is because it would be a signal to investors that the Fed is SERIOUSLY worried about the stability of the banking system that they have to deviate so significantly from their hawkish plans.
Meaning that investors SHOULD NOT consider such a move as a dreamed of “dovish pivot”. Rather this would be the Fed hitting the panic button that the stability of financial system is now more important than fighting inflation (which they have dubbed as Public Enemy #1 for over a year).
For as funny as it sounds…let’s all pray that the Fed continues to hike rates aggressively at the 3/22 meeting as pressing pause could be much worse for stocks.”
Any way you slice it I would suggest being bearish into that 3/22 Fed announcement.
Now let’s move on to economic data which is only darkening in the manufacturing space which is often called the “canary in the coal mine” of the US economy. On Wednesday the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -24.6 versus expectations of -7…way off the mark.
Things did not get better on Thursday as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in at an equally ugly -23.2 about 2X worse than expected. There we find that the forward looking New Orders component is even worse at -28.2 (the lowest reading since the heart of Covid in May 2020).
For my money the outlook is looking rather bearish. That is sometimes hard to see clearly with all the recent volatility. Which leads one to pull back to take in the big picture.
That is why I say from a fundamental perspective things continue to tip towards recession which creates bearish environment. Further, the emergence of the banking concerns is only a cherry on top.
So, the word to the wise is to prepare for further downside action in the weeks ahead.
What To Do Next?
Watch my brand new presentation, REVISED: 2023 Stock Market Outlook
There I will cover vital issues such as…
- 5 Warnings Signs the Bear Returns Starting Now!
- Banking Crisis Concerns Another Nail in the Coffin
- How Low Will Stocks Go?
- 7 Timely Trades to Profit on the Way Down
- Plan to Bottom Fish for Next Bull Market
- 2 Trades with 100%+ Upside Potential as New Bull Emerges
- And Much More!
If these ideas concern you, then please click below to access this vital presentation now:
REVISED: 2023 Stock Market Outlook >
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return
SPY shares rose $0.01 (0.00%) in after-hours trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 1.98%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Steve Reitmeister
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.
The post Bank Problems = Bearish Thumb on Stock Market Scale appeared first on StockNews.com
Seasonal Business? Eight Strategies For Thriving In The Off-Season
Seasonal e-commerce businesses, such as those specializing in holiday decorations or summer clothing, rely heavily on specific seasons or holidays to drive their sales. However, when the off-season rolls around, these businesses can often struggle to maintain their customer base and generate revenue.
Finding ways to attract customers during the off-season can be challenging, but it is essential for the long-term success of these businesses. Below, a panel of Young Entrepreneur Council members share effective strategies that seasonal e-commerce businesses can use to keep their customers engaged and generate sales throughout the year.
1. Cover Shipping Costs
Offer free shipping. It’s one of the most efficient strategies to attract customers during the off-season. Shipping costs have often been a dealbreaker for many customers when ordering stuff online. So, allowing your customers to get their preferred items at their doorsteps without having to pay an extra amount can help bring traction to your store during the off-season. – Chris Klosowski, Easy Digital Downloads
2. Reframe Your Marketing Strategy
Incentivizing prospects with deep discounts and early-bird specials can be an effective strategy, but convincing them that it’s best to get ahead of their need for the product is also critical. Consider reframing your marketing so that it builds a case for why this is the best time to make a purchase. If you have complementary products, the “off-season” is a great time to cross-sell to customers. – Samuel Saxton, ConsumerRating.org
3. Host A Giveaway
One clever way to improve sales for your business is to host an off-season giveaway. People are always willing to participate in a risk-free contest, even if the product isn’t in season. The key to turning your giveaway into sales is to send everyone who participated but didn’t win a thank-you email with a limited-time discount. – Chris Christoff, MonsterInsights
4. Leverage Your Mailing List
Make use of your database. Peak season is an excellent opportunity to build a mailing list. As the lull of your slow season approaches, a mailing list can pay off as a way to connect with customers about special offers or products. With this, you can stay top of mind with customers throughout the year by offering specials or helpful tips, gaining more word-of-mouth recommendations from delighted patrons. – Tonika Bruce, Lead Nicely, Inc.
5. Create A Loyalty Program
One way to attract customers during the off-season is by creating a loyalty program. By offering a discount or rewards points, you can encourage customers to shop with you even outside of the peak season. Make sure to frame the loyalty program in a way that emphasizes the value for customers in the program exclusively. This makes it more appealing and likely to boost sales during the off-season. – Syed Balkhi, WPBeginner
6. Explore Other Profitable Niches
One of the best ways for a seasonal e-commerce business to attract customers during the off-season is to consider exploring other niches. Since you’re in a seasonal business, any fix you come up with would be temporary. Next year, you’d more likely be facing the same problem. So, think ahead and consider exploring other profitable niches to expand your business and attract new customers. – Stephanie Wells, Formidable Forms
7. Offer Special Discounts Or Limited-Edition Products
One way for seasonal e-commerce businesses to attract customers during the off-season is to offer special promotions or discounts on their products. For example, a beach-themed business could offer a discount on sunscreen or beach towels during the winter months when people are less likely to be thinking about their summer vacations. Another strategy could be to offer limited-edition products. – Fritz Colcol, Simply Thalia
8. Collaborate With Other Brands
By partnering with other brands, you can attract more people to your website during the off-season. Guest posts, sponsored posts and collaborative videos are all excellent options that will drive traffic to your site, even if your product or service isn’t in season. If the content is helpful, people who find your company during this time may decide to continue engaging with your brand. – John Turner, SeedProd LLC
Italian Colony brings affordable Italian fashion to India with its online store
New Delhi, India, March 28, 2023: Italian Colony, a company dedicated to offering exquisite Italian clothing to the Indian market, is proud to announce the launch of its online store. With a focus on providing fashionable men’s clothing at reasonable prices, Italian Colony is committed to bringing the opulent elegance of Italian fashion to customers in India.
Over the last two decades, the internet has witnessed a significant surge in accessibility, drawing in millions of people to online platforms. The future prospects for eCommerce growth in India are immensely promising, and the rising usage of smartphones is expected to fuel this trend even further.
Personal style is quite distinctive, with people leaning towards different levels of comfort and fashion. However, when it comes to apparel, Italy is distinguished for its opulent designs and craftsmanship. Such a level of elegance is now readily accessible through Italian Colony.
Mr. Chintan Mehta, CEO & Founder of Italian Colony, said, “After operating a B2B men’s clothing business for over ten years, we noticed that men are drawn to high-quality apparel that features the latest fashion at affordable costs. We decided to start an online business to increase our reach because B2B has its own limitations. With Italian Colony, we want to offer a large selection of men’s apparel at affordable prices.”
The launch of Italian Colony’s online store comes at a time when the e-commerce industry in India is expected to expand and reach a market size of US$ 188 billion by 2025 as per innoraft.com. Italian Colony is poised to tap into this growth and meet the increasing demand for affordable, high-quality men’s clothing in the Indian market.
The online store currently offers a range of men’s pants, including joggers, cargos, jeans, and trousers. Italian Colony plans to add more categories in the future and become a one-stop shop for men’s fashion in India. Customers can find exquisite Italian designs, flawless tailoring, and lavish details at affordable prices.
Italian Colony plans to further expand its footprint by connecting with other e-commerce platforms to enable customers to purchase their favourite Italian-style men’s apparel from anywhere in the world conveniently.
To shop Italian-style men’s apparel, please visit: www.italiancolony.com
Disclaimer: This article is a paid publication and does not have journalistic/editorial involvement of Hindustan Times. Hindustan Times does not endorse/subscribe to the content(s) of the article/advertisement and/or view(s) expressed herein. Hindustan Times shall not in any manner, be responsible and/or liable in any manner whatsoever for all that is stated in the article and/or also with regard to the view(s), opinion(s), announcement(s), declaration(s), affirmation(s) etc., stated/featured in the same.
Are You Using the Most Powerful Marketing Tool on the Planet? Ashley Kirkwood Shows You How.
When I first started my business I spent two weeks cold emailing members of the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce. I lived in Brooklyn, so I thought it would be a great opportunity to quickly get some local clients. I got two responses.
One person booked me for a small project. And by small, I mean I made $100. I was disappointed but eventually found success with a different approach. Instead of messaging individual members, I asked my contact at the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce if they were interested in me leading a workshop for the entire community. I believe the topic was “Digital Marketing for Small Businesses” or something along those lines.
They said yes, promoted me to their list, and even gave me access to a conference room at no charge. The day of the event I was shocked to see over 50 people show up to hear me speak. After the event, several attendees rushed over to speak to me. Mind you, I’m positive I reached out to some of them via email just weeks before.
But after hearing me speak, their perception of me changed. I wasn’t just some random person trying to sell them something. I was the guy who already shared valuable content and they wanted to know how I could apply that information to their specific business. I walked out with a stack of business cards and closed two deals within the next week.
That’s when it hit me: speaking was a much more efficient process for building my credibility, attracting leads and closing deals. And that’s why I was so glad Ashley Kirkwood agreed to appear on the Launch Your Business podcast. Ashley is the author of Speak Your Way to Cash®: How to Start at the Top of the Speaking Market Instead of Working Your Way Up from the Bottom! Her organization, also called Speak Your Way to Cash, teaches professionals to better package, pitch, and sell their products and services.
During our interview she shared tactic-level strategies on how you can get paid from and through speaking opportunities. I’ve shared some of my favorite takeaways below.
Don’t sell better than you deliver, and don’t deliver better than you sell
We’ll start with the first part: don’t sell better than you deliver. This can be catastrophic since you’re letting the client down and damaging your reputation. Plus, you won’t be able to generate leads after delivering a lackluster performance. So while it may be tempting to charge big bucks from the start, make sure your fee is aligned with the results you’ve already been able to deliver.
At the same time, don’t deliver better than you sell. As an expert you have a skewed perception of how valuable your knowledge is. But remember, what comes easy to you may be quite difficult for others. So don’t undersell yourself. Otherwise you won’t make enough money and you’ll be less likely to continue speaking, which means you won’t be able to help those who need you.
How much to charge for speaking engagements
Although you may just want to speak for lead generation and branding purposes, there’s no reason you shouldn’t get paid at the same time. And while I recommend speaking for free to get your feet wet, you should seriously consider charging for your services once you’ve begun to establish yourself.
Asking for $1,000 is enough to justify your time without being too expensive for many organizations. However, Ashley encourages you to continue ascending so you can charge your true value. She referenced an industry report that revealed the average professional speaker charges $7,500. So consider this a next step once you’ve landed a few gigs at a lower price point.
How to create a $100k speaking package
This was by far my favorite take away from the conversation. Most speakers only pitch one event to potential partners. As a result, they’re automatically limiting their revenue potential.
Instead, Ashley encourages you to pitch a series of talks and includes additional options such as e-books, courses and VIP dinners. Beyond that, you can greatly increase your rates by including consulting services. Offering to help individuals or organizations apply what they’ve learned during your event is a great way to form a deeper partnership and greatly increase your rates.
Ready to learn more from Ashley?
Learn more about her programs and community
I love feedback! If you have any questions or suggestions for future podcasts please connect with me on LinkedIn or Instagram.
Listen to the full episode with Ashley below.
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